Yes, There Is Voter Fraud In New Hampshire

I haven't jumped on the Trump bandwagon just yet but I bet the Donald would not tolerate voter fraud. He won over a lot of hearts and minds when he discussed topics GOP candidates were too cowardly to address, namely immigration and Islamic terrorism. Voter fraud is yet one more elephant in a room that seems pretty damned crowded with pachyderms.

 From this blog's very inception in 2009, there was a concern about voter fraud. ACORN has come and gone but institutionalized cheating remains. It was a concern in 2010, a much larger concern in 2012 and still on the radar in 2014. In 2016, no Republican is touching this subject.

 For seven years I have waited for someone to step forward to address an issue that could bring our republic to its knees (if it hasn't already.) Had the GOP addressed institutionalized cheating in 2009, 2010, 2011, or even 2012, they might have captured the White House. We get the occasional Rand Paul or Ted Cruz to bring attention to ignored topics but even the most outspoken members of Congress will not help us out here.

Voter fraud is real and it is rampant. It is possibly the greatest threat our republic has ever faced. It has been tolerated for much too long. May God bless James O'Keefe.

DON'T CALL THEM CHEATERS, CALL THEM CRIMINALS!

Voter Fraud In New Hampshire?

I just wish Project Veritas was bigger and had deeper pockets.

Stossel Touts Cruz Campaign Brilliance But...

This is a John Stossel column trumpeting Ted Ctuz's high tech campaign. A lot of Stossel's "Town Hall" pieces promote whatever he happens to be doing at the time on Fox Business Network. It sometimes seems Stossel has a monopoly on common sense but this is not one of those times.

For all the praise heaped on the campaign, it is my perception that the compliments are overstated. Maybe the Cruz campaign saw New Hampshire as unwinnable and their goal was to hold the fort while spending $18/vote and moving on to the south with deeper pockets than the competition. OK, but while in New Hampshire, couldn't they have put up a better fight?

Stossel claims that Cruz's campaign locates potential supporters and concentrates their efforts on getting them to the polls. Point taken but I did not get one call from the campaign. That is all the more remarkable because I volunteered my time for the campaign, left my number and I did not get one call from them. Zero. Meanwhile, Hillary's peeps called me about a half dozen times (actually they called a "Judith" who seems to have left them the wrong number.)

Of course it remains to be seen how smart the Cruz campaign really is but as of this writing I, for one, am not impressed.

My New Hampshire Predictions Were So Bad People Might Start Calling Me Larry Sabato

Trump surprised me. The reasons I thought he would underperform:

1. His New Hampshire rallies were inflated by people from Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont who wanted to see a TV star.

2. Many of Trump's fans are curiosity seekers who may or may not vote (as in Iowa).

3. Trump had a terrible ground game (as in Iowa.)

4. Being that I underestimated the commitment of Trump's supporters, I thought they would be even less likely to turn out the day after a snow storm if they did turn out in Iowa.

5. Bloom off rose/tired shtick/jumped the shark.

6. The Independents would be drawn to the Democratic race. This actually happened but it doesn't seem to make much difference.


Why I thought Cruise would overperform:

1. Commitment of principled voters.

2. Most of Rand Paul's supporters would go to Cruz.

3. After a 10 % showing in Iowa, a lot of Carson supporters would go elsewhere, most likely to Cruz.

4. Unlike the two previous Iowa winners, Santorum and Huckabee, Cruz is well-funded and brought in $3 million after winning Iowa.

5. Despite not spending a lot of money in New Hampshire, Cruz's campaign has a reputation for maximizing resources.

Why I thought Hillary would do better:

1. I underestimated Hillary's decline and fall. With or without an indictment, we have a Humpty Dumpty situation on our hands. Is there a king's horseman in the house?

New Hampshire Even Money Propositions

I'm not taking action, so don't bother calling.

Trump over/under 29 %

Cruz over/under 20 %

Rubio over/under 20 %

The top three candidates cumulative vote over/under 71 %

Sanders over/under 56 %

Exactly One Candidate Suspends his/her campaign Tuesday before 11:59 PM EST 50/50

Candidates suspend campaign by Wednesday 11:59 PM EST, over/under (including Artis Gilmore) 3

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I have been reading the pundits, the polls and the British betting sites all with a grain of salt and the weather reports with even more salt (they understated the last storm. 3-5 inches turned into a foot.) I stand by my earlier predictions:

1. Trump will not perform as well as the polls indicate.

2. Cruz will perform better than the polls indicate.

3. Sanders will not perform as well as polls indicate. Which means that Hillary will overperform but will probably lose. Given where she was a year ago it seems strange that Hillary will be celebrating a close second in a match race to the mandatory retirement poster child

I said before that Rubio is the wild card. The Gang of 8 has taken on a different meaning in the GOP Primaries. It's everyone against Marco and if he can survive the bleeding, look out front runners.

No One Goes To Trump Rallies. They're Too Crowded

So the Donald was in town today and I was unable to see him. Of course, I would have had to arrive at 8 AM to maybe, just maybe, get admitted to an event that started at noon. I arrived after Trump left the building and they were still detouring traffic. I parked about a quarter mile away.

There were a lot of stragglers. Lots of old-timers in red "Make America Great Again" hats. I talked with a middle-aged woman who had arrived at 10 AM and was denied admission. She planned to see him Saturday night at the Verizon Center in Manchester because it seats about 10,000.

Some hecklers made it into the crowd and I respect them for their determination. The town hall was set up with press barricades. There was almost no room at all for spectators.

The sideshows are often better than the center ring. There was some pro-Palestinian group as well as  non-Zionist Orthodox Jews. Trump wigs seem to be selling almost as well as Trump hats. I saw a few media middleweights, Boston TV people and the like. I went to a nearby coffee shop and there were even more media types with notebooks and laptops.

Whatever else can be said for Donald Trump, he has boosted the local economy.

Cruz In New Hampshire

Hillary has 10 campaign offices in New Hampshire. Jeb has 5. Jet-setting Bernie Sanders has 17! 

Those are the big fish but even Kasich has 5 offices statewide, his headquarters plus four field offices. Chris Christie has two in-state offices, one in Bedford, one in Salem. Rand Paul opened a second office in Littleton on December 5, 2015.


I tried volunteering for the Ted Cruz campaign. The first time I dropped by headquarters was Saturday, January 2. Two things were immediately obvious: One, the location was remotely located, far removed from downtown Manchester. Two, the campaign shared a unit with Armstrong Hearth and Home and had second billing on the marquee.

531 Front St.

I met Ethan Zorfas, the Cruz point man in New Hampshire. He walked around talking on the phone. There was someone else there fiddling with a tablet or laptop. When Mr. Zorfas concluded his call, he was friendly and inviting. I asked if there was a seaside office that would be more convenient for someone like me and he said no. They want to run a lean campaign. They were staying away from downtown Manchester because they wanted more parking spaces.

The pictures above do not capture the ample parking in the rear of the building. Maybe a low rent HQ with lots of parking spaces is the way to go. We know the Cruz campaign is still financially viable but if volunteers have to commute 45 minutes--in my case, much longer for a lot of other would be volunteers--it dampens the enthusiasm.

I made a second visit to HQ, spent some time making phone calls and then received a series of personal calls on my cell that terminated my campaigning.

I have not since returned to Cruz headquarters. Still a political novice, I don't have a lot to compare to this campaign. For an assemblage of interesting people, Ron Paul 2008 might not ever be topped. There was real camaraderie there.

In 2012 I worked for Romney in the general election. We were not united behind a candidate or an ideology. IRS harassment of opposition groups was widely known long before Lois Lerner publicly confessed to a conspiracy and Barack Obama read about it in the newspaper. Between phone calls we would mention the crimes of America's most tyrannical president, all of which were soft-pedaled by the statist media. We were unified by fear and desperation. And of course the field office was a just a couple of miles from my home.

I detected an enthusiasm gap at the Cruz campaign. It seemed that the national campaign was not committed to New Hampshire. So I have not been networking or helping out the senator.

You will hear a lot of pundit silliness comparing and contrasting the Iowa and New Hampshire voter. If Cruz under-performs in New Hampshire, a state where his message could get a lot of traction, it will be due to a lack of effort by his brain trust. That is a shame because New Hampshire was in Cruz's grasp.

New Hampshire Predictions

Iowa went pretty much as I thought it would on the Republican side. Cruz over-performed and not surprisingly Trump under-performed. Yes, the ground game does matter. I can't take credit for predicting Rubio's close third place finish but I am not surprised either.

On the Democratic side, I thought Hillary would blow Sanders back to Brooklyn. They did have the ground game, political savvy and a lot of cash. If only they had a candidate worthy of support. I don't know how much longer Biden/Kerry/Brown/Gore/Bloomberg/Chelsea/Mondale/Carter/Dukakis can wait on the sideline. Anyone got a Kennedy friend on Facebook?

First the Democratic predictions. Sanders will beat Hillary decidedly and will hasten the "Dump Hillary" movement. Hillary's people are out in force and if lawn signs voted...The national Dems are all in for the Hillster and yes, she is spending money. Air game, ground game, you name it. She might even get out some of the Massachusetts voters who illegally voted for Obama in 2012 (excuse me if that matter is entirely anecdotal. No the Obama DOJ did not investigate.) The Dem leadership will make a maximum effort to help their preferred candidate and it won't be enough.

Now to the GOP. Trump will under-perform. He might win but not by 24 points. First, there is once more the ground game or lack thereof. The second factor is that he will not get as many independent (undeclared is the legal term) voters as he would if the Dems were not activating the Get Out The Vote  effort. If this were a Hillary coronation, Trump might get some of the undeclareds who will ultimately vote in the Democratic primary. Third, the bloom is off the rose. It's one thing to bash the media, the Dems, Hillary, Obama and plenty of others but you have to pull your punches when you take on members of your own party. You want to charm their would-be voters, not insult them. Duh! His shtick is starting to wear thin.

Cruz will do better than expected but not as well as he could have. If he loses New Hampshire it won't be for the reasons the pundits cite. Nope. It was not in Cruz's long-term strategy to spend a lot of time or money in New Hampshire. The national campaign never put much money into the Granite State and that might prove to be a mistake because he has a strong grass roots following here. Should he win both Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination might be his. It probably won't happen.

Rubio is the wild card. We might see Bush, Kasich and Christie try to bring him down but so what? If they haven't destroyed him by now, they won't bury him in the last six days. The candidates might snipe at him but I see Kasich/Bush/Christie voters going Rubio's way. Whatever else you might want to say about Rubio, he is an amazing retail politician. Bill Clinton says so.

Like Clinton, Rubio has chick appeal. Women who might not be interested in politics perk up when he speaks. Not everyone gets the "charisma" label but I have heard that word used to describe him. Rubio will probably get second place but he has an outside shot of winning New Hampshire.

A long overdue post is a report from the Cruz campaign. I hope to file that one soon.