Iowa went pretty much as I thought it would on the Republican side. Cruz over-performed and not surprisingly Trump under-performed. Yes, the ground game does matter. I can't take credit for predicting Rubio's close third place finish but I am not surprised either.
On the Democratic side, I thought Hillary would blow Sanders back to Brooklyn. They did have the ground game, political savvy and a lot of cash. If only they had a candidate worthy of support. I don't know how much longer Biden/Kerry/Brown/Gore/Bloomberg/Chelsea/Mondale/Carter/Dukakis can wait on the sideline. Anyone got a Kennedy friend on Facebook?
First the Democratic predictions. Sanders will beat Hillary decidedly and will hasten the "Dump Hillary" movement. Hillary's people are out in force and if lawn signs voted...The national Dems are all in for the Hillster and yes, she is spending money. Air game, ground game, you name it. She might even get out some of the Massachusetts voters who illegally voted for Obama in 2012 (excuse me if that matter is entirely anecdotal. No the Obama DOJ did not investigate.) The Dem leadership will make a maximum effort to help their preferred candidate and it won't be enough.
Now to the GOP. Trump will under-perform. He might win but not by 24 points. First, there is once more the ground game or lack thereof. The second factor is that he will not get as many independent (undeclared is the legal term) voters as he would if the Dems were not activating the Get Out The Vote effort. If this were a Hillary coronation, Trump might get some of the undeclareds who will ultimately vote in the Democratic primary. Third, the bloom is off the rose. It's one thing to bash the media, the Dems, Hillary, Obama and plenty of others but you have to pull your punches when you take on members of your own party. You want to charm their would-be voters, not insult them. Duh! His shtick is starting to wear thin.
Cruz will do better than expected but not as well as he could have. If he loses New Hampshire it won't be for the reasons the pundits cite. Nope. It was not in Cruz's long-term strategy to spend a lot of time or money in New Hampshire. The national campaign never put much money into the Granite State and that might prove to be a mistake because he has a strong grass roots following here. Should he win both Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination might be his. It probably won't happen.
Rubio is the wild card. We might see Bush, Kasich and Christie try to bring him down but so what? If they haven't destroyed him by now, they won't bury him in the last six days. The candidates might snipe at him but I see Kasich/Bush/Christie voters going Rubio's way. Whatever else you might want to say about Rubio, he is an amazing retail politician. Bill Clinton says so.
Like Clinton, Rubio has chick appeal. Women who might not be interested in politics perk up when he speaks. Not everyone gets the "charisma" label but I have heard that word used to describe him. Rubio will probably get second place but he has an outside shot of winning New Hampshire.
A long overdue post is a report from the Cruz campaign. I hope to file that one soon.
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