So Nate Silver is giving Trump an 8% chance of winning. The reasoned and reasonable John Stossel gives Trump a 37% chance of winning because that's what the European betting markets have reasoned. The portals, MSN, AOL, Yahoo, et al, are pushing Joe across the finish line. The word "landslide" and Biden are now appearing in the same sentence. Haven't we seen this movie?
I hold the strong opinion that the Democrats' only chance is widespread cheating. Early voting allows for multiple voting. Mail ballots are rife with fraud, and Justice Roberts might have handed Pennsylvania to Joe Biden. The Dems will also use the old vote-in-one-state-vote-absentee-in-another-state tactic, and you can bet that dead people and illegal aliens will turn out in record numbers.
I cannot see Trump losing a fair election. The reasons are as follow:
1.Incumbent presidents who are unopposed in the primaries (William Weld does not count) seldom lose. The last incumbent to lose was George I, and he had Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot to thank for his retirement. Jimmy Carter was stabbed in the back by first, Teddy Kennedy, and second, John Anderson. Herbert Hoover was wounded by five bantamweights in the primaries. Eisenhower, Clinton, George II, even Barry Soetoro were able to get reelected following their unopposed primaries.
2. Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary. In 2008, Hillary captured 49% of the not so super delegates. Biden got zero. Biden finished behind Obama, Hillary, John Edwards, and Bill Richardson. He breathed the same rarified air exhaled by the likes of Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel, and Tom Vilsack. Biden has not expanded his base or his appeal twelve years later. In 2020, Joe lost horribly in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it is doubtful he would have gotten the nomination without the party fixing the outcome to end the embarrassing display of weak prospects.
3. There is no "First Woman President" novelty despite the Harris selection.
4. There is no Evan McMullen.
5. Gary Johnson was more popular than whoever the Libertarians are running this year.
6. Not every Anti-Trump Republican was a Never-Trumper. Glenn Beck, Dave Rubin, and Ben Shapiro, to name a few, support the Donald.
7. I have not heard a single person in public discourse or in private conversation say, "I voted for Trump in 2016, but I won't vote for him in 2020." Not one.
8. Trump Rallies still turn away tens of thousands of people.
9. Flotillas. I can't keep track of all of them, and I cannot tell you if Rhode Island turned out more boats than San Diego. I can tell you that this is a new phenomenon, and there would not be record-size armadas for an unpopular president.
10. Trump car parades. Again, I can't keep track of all of them. I know that in blue Massachusetts, there was an effort to conduct the longest Trump parade to date. I don't know if they succeeded. I do know that the blue states of New York and California have also produced some jaw-dropping motorcades.
11. The vanishing Democratic minority voter. Viva Trump!
12. 56 % of respondents state that they are better off now than four years ago.
13. More October surprises.
I don't want to bother with the offshore betting sites, so I won't be putting my money where my mouth is. But if this will be a semi-fair election--and that is a big if---Trump is the surest bet since Secretariat at the Belmont (at much better odds.)
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