Republican Charlie Baker Leading In Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race

This blog has discussed Charlie Baker before. He gave incumbent Duval Patrick a run for his money in 2010 and were it not for a third party fiscally conservative candidate draining off votes, Baker might have won the election.

Baker's opponent is Attorney General Martha Coakley who is best known as the candidate who lost a special election to Scott Brown for the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

BTW, Massachusetts is much better off than most blue states. I cannot speak to the solidity of their pensions but The Bay State has not undergone the budget crises that we witness in places like Illinois and California. Boston is not on the skids like Detroit and Chicago. Governor Patrick and Mayor Menino both seem to have done good jobs under difficult circumstances.

We will revisit the Massachusetts miracle later. For now, let us focus on the governor's race:
Baker 38.
Coakley 37.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/08/28/baker-catches-coakley-new-poll-shows/E9TjCDPnGt0S4KrupRED7N/story.html?event=event25

Scott Brown, Charlie Baker, New Hampshire, Massachusetts

Politicians, like generals and coaches and CEO's, sometimes over-think a problem. In the words of Jerry Brown, sometimes less is more.

Whoever advised Scott Brown to abandon Massachusetts to pursue a Senate seat in New Hampshire should be sued for malpractice. First, the strategizing confirms the image of Scott Brown being all about Scott. Robert Kennedy and Hillary might get away with moving to New York to launch their careers but this is a different can of worms.

Simply put, Scott Brown's seat-shopping could hurt his career both long-term and short-term. Scott Brown made a respectable showing against Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Warren rode Obama's coattails which is to say she was probably aided and abetted by illegal immigrants, multistate voters, repeat voters and the deceased. Those demographics tend to stay home in off-year elections.

Should Scott Brown win his primary--and that is not a given--he will square off against Jean Shaheen, a Senator who has maintained her popularity despite callously inflicting Obamacare on her populace. Had Brown stayed in Massachusetts, he would have faced zero primary challenges and would have squared off against the fossilized Ed Markey. Even in deep blue Massachusetts Markey is viewed with suspicion. He is best remembered as a term limit advocate who stayed in Congress for roughly a millenium. Markey would be easier than Shaheen, hands down.

Then there is the top of the ticket, a factor Brown's brain trust should be familiar with after 2012. In New Hampshire the GOP gubernatorial candidates trail incumbent Maggie Hassan by over twenty points. In Massachusetts, Charlie Baker and Martha Coakley are in a dead heat. http://tinyurl.com/nq59a2v

Charlie Baker could be the next Mitt Romney (if that sounds like a left-handed compliment, well...) He narrowly lost the governor's race against incumbent Deval Patrick in 2010. The Dems ran a fiscal conservative (State Treasurer Tim Cahill) as an independent (and then pursued corruption charges against the former treasurer as a sign of gratitude) and were able to siphon off enough votes to assure Patrick's re-election.

Meanwhile the RINO's are turning out for Brown. His daughter got Senator Ayotte to officiate at her wedding. Mitt Romney has been stumping for Brown. One has to wonder if Brown will waffle on abortion the way Romney did. He was after all, "pro-choice" in 2012.

If this New Hampshire thing does not work out for Scott Brown, what is next? Does he have a time-share in Vermont? A cabin in Maine? New York has some of the country's most lenient residency requirements. We might witness Brown's last hurrah and another last hurrah and another last hurrah played out in 57 states.

Then again, Brown might become Senator in 2014. He has presidential ego and presidential aspirations. He would be in prime position to notch the New Hampshire Primary in 2016.

I am not paid as well as Brown's consultants but for what it's worth, I think they might have over-thought this one.

The Massacusetts Senatorial Election

Rasmussen states that it is likely that Martha Coakley will win Ted Kennedy's vacant Senatorial seat. Even if this is the case, the GOP will win a small victory. President Obama will not campaign for Coakley. This speaks volumes about Obama's dwindled popularity. The Dems want to keep Massachusetts in the worst possible way and if it would help the cause, Obama would definitely campaign for the Democratic candidate. The fact that the Coakley campaign thinks of Obama as an albatross is a nice consolation prize.

But it sure would be nice to grab the gold medal for a change.