What If Boehner Does Not Cave?

What if Boehner Does Not Cave?

I know. We are all waiting for the other blade to drop and maybe it will. Maybe it will. Then again, why should it drop now?

One quick clarification. This is not THE fiscal cliff. This is a fiscal cliff. We will need more parachutes for more cliffs in the future and I am not sure there can be a soft landing when we descend the fiscal Grand Canyon. But the narrative fits nicely for the pro-Obama media. After placing a moratorium on discussing fiscal issues leading up to the election, they will be able to say that The Pampered One has solved our fiscal dilemma once and for all and that he did so with bipartisan support. Any bad news from here on out is someone else's fault. Long live the spin.

Things might work out that way and Barry will accept his Nobel Prize in Economics. Maybe. But maybe John Boehner won't be so cooperative.

From my perspective, John Boehner is not a complicated animal. No Hamlets here. This is a thinly drawn made for TV character who could be described in one sentence. John Boehner is a shrewd political pragmatist.

Boehner is not one of us. So what? This is a guy who has seen political fads come and go. The Libertarians. The LaRouchians. The Constitutionalists. The Buchananites. The Reform Party. Maybe Boehner thinks the Tea Party might just be one more flavor of the month destined for the political scrap heap. He could be right in that assessment.

What motivates Mr. Speaker? This is speculative but probably accurate:

1. Re-election.

2. Maintaining his position as Speaker of the House.

3. Expanding his power.

4. Camera time.

First, if Boehner does not wage a credible budget fight, he will be challenged for his leadership position. Win or lose, that battle will damage his prospects for re-election in 2014. So the best case scenario for Boehner (and quite possibly the best case scenario for the Tea Party) is to get huge budget cuts and delay the tax issues for one more year.

The Speaker is as vain as one might expect him to be. He likes to recall the people who shook his hand in airports during the early days of the tea party and told him how much they needed him and respected him for standing up to the forces of evil. Remember that dreary Sunday evening when Speaker Boehner roared "Hell no, you didn't read the bill!" to a pack of weasels who clearly neglected their representational duties? It was a grim day for America but it was a glorious moment for John Boehner. With that bold and truthful proclamation John Boehner sealed his future as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The Speaker of the House is the second most powerful position in the United States. When the presidency is weakened or compromised, the Speaker is the most powerful person on Planet Earth. From 2007 to 2008 Nancy Pelosi carried more clout than George Bush. From 2007 to 2011 Nancy Pelosi was the most powerful woman the world has ever known.

There have been presidents like Truman and Eisenhower who assumed the office without really trying. Not so, Speaker of the House. They are all political pirahna who devour other fast, hungry, sharp-toothed cannibals to seize the magic gavel. Every speaker craves power and dominance and every speaker understands power and dominance. Boehner is no exception.

If Boehner can schedule a Fiscal Cliff Battle Royale Sequel next year, he will certainly remain in the limelight. And make no doubt about it, he will be dealing with a White House that will be busy treading water, if not fighting impeachment. I see a bleak future for Barack Obama and I believe Boehner smells political blood in political waters. It could be a great time to be Speaker of the House. Boehner knows it.