I am still trying to make sense of yesterday's elections. If you had said that Obama would receive 4 million fewer votes now than in 2008 and still win, I would question your sanity. But that's what happened.
Two things of which I am certain:
1. Negative ads work. If the GOP is to survive, they have to get in the sewer with their rivals.
2. TV is still king and the Dems control TV. Newspapers and magazines have lost their clout but TV is still king, even amongst the Youtube crowd. If anything, it has gained stature by Youtube replays and more importantly, the politicization of the entertainment divisions.
We can expound on both of those but for now, let's focus on those things that don't explain themselves so easily.
1. Dick Morris is a dumbass. OK, he wasn't the only "expert" who missed this one. Wayne Allen Root, Karl Rove, Michael Barone...Nate Silver carried the day his explanation is lacking.
2. Obama's ground game was greatly overstated. Yes, it was good enough to win but if you lose 4 million voters, how great can it be? I think this is what Nate Silver was alluding to.
3. The female voter carried the day. I guess I should check my premises on this one. Abortion somehow become a central issue. I remember reading or hearing somewhere long ago that women on average opposed abortion in higher percentages than men. Maybe that was wrong.
I also remember reading that women are more likely to vote for a man than for a woman. The harshest resistance to Palin and Bachmann came from women both inside and outside their party. In New Hampshire, three seemingly weak female candidates defeated three so so males, two of whom were incumbents and had beaten the same women in 2008. New Hampshire elected two females to Congress and one to governor.
I recognize that single women vote differently than married women and single mothers vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Is that the demographic we need to target? I hope not.
4. The GOP's efforts to diversify are noble but ultimately futile. Both Allen West and Mia Love lost. These were not just token black candidates, they were both touted as rising stars.
5. Religion just isn't what it used to be. Ralph Reed failed to get out the vote. The Bishop of the New Hampshire Diocese instructed his priests to read a "vote your conscience" letter from the pulpit on the Sunday before the election. It did no good.
I thought the Dems shouting down God at their convention might resonate on election day. Nope.
6. The NRA ain't what it used to be. Obama hates guns and he could stack the deck on the Supreme Court to overturn the Second Amendment.
7. I am reluctant to believe that Hurricane Sandy was a game changer. I believe in the stupification of America but most people know a photo op when they see one. Maybe not.
8. How valuable is military service to a political career? In 2008 I talked to a lot of Obots and I was shocked at how little McCain's war hero status meant to them. They sneered and mocked him for his service. Some conservatives disliked Mitt because he did not serve nor did any of his five sons. So it still means something, right? Well, Allen West was defeated by a nobody. So, maybe not.
9. So if God and guns and prosperity no longer matter, what does matter? I suppose celebrity endorsements matter (that is so sad to me) but did Gaga involve herself in the Senate elections in Montana and North Dakota? And if the GOP is so damn popular with white people why can they not win those states?
Help and comments would be appreciated.
3 comments:
Not sure what I agree with in this post. Naturally still reeling from the Tuesday debacle. Haven't posted much this week but am wondering where Hoosierman is?? Is everything ok with him? He's not on email.
Hoosierman is alive and well and staying busy. He should return soon.
Oh, cool. I haven't been posting either, as I'm taking a rest. Gotta figure things out. I'm thinking there was an awful lot of cheating that went on. That's what I'm thinking. Thanks for the info.
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