Saturday, June 8, 2013

Massachusetts Senate in a Dead Heat

With the disclaimer "This survey was organized and funded by John Jordan, a Republican donor and activist" McLaughlin & Associates goes on to announce that the Massachusetts Senate race is a dead heat. The Real Clear Politics average of polls gives Congressman Ed Markey a double digit lead of 10.4%. One may ask how much polling experience does McLaughlin & Associates have? The answer is about as much as anyone else who has polled the race except for PPP. In a poll released on May 1 PPP gave Markey a 4 point lead. The rest of the polls were conducted by New England College, Emerson College, WBUR/MassINC, and Suffolk/7News. Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has polled this race.
Is it not conceivable that the barrage of scandals that have erupted in the past two weeks has taken a toll on Washington insiders such as Markey? The McLaughlin poll breaks down thus.

Gomez Total 44%
Definitely Vote Gomez 31%
Probably Vote  Gomez 10%
Lean Gomez 4%
Markey Total 45%
Definitely Vote Markey 28%
Probably Vote  Markey 11%
Lean Markey 6%
Undecided 11%

On the favorable/unfavorable scale Markey is not held in high esteem by 42% of the voters. He is 42% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Gomez is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorable by only 27%.
 

No comments: