Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Delegates, Smelagates: Hillary Is Running Away With This Race

This should mobilize the base. Due to the Dems' Super Delegate system, Hillary leads Sanders in delegates, 431 to 52. Feel the Burn!

Stossel Touts Cruz Campaign Brilliance But...

This is a John Stossel column trumpeting Ted Ctuz's high tech campaign. A lot of Stossel's "Town Hall" pieces promote whatever he happens to be doing at the time on Fox Business Network. It sometimes seems Stossel has a monopoly on common sense but this is not one of those times.

For all the praise heaped on the campaign, it is my perception that the compliments are overstated. Maybe the Cruz campaign saw New Hampshire as unwinnable and their goal was to hold the fort while spending $18/vote and moving on to the south with deeper pockets than the competition. OK, but while in New Hampshire, couldn't they have put up a better fight?

Stossel claims that Cruz's campaign locates potential supporters and concentrates their efforts on getting them to the polls. Point taken but I did not get one call from the campaign. That is all the more remarkable because I volunteered my time for the campaign, left my number and I did not get one call from them. Zero. Meanwhile, Hillary's peeps called me about a half dozen times (actually they called a "Judith" who seems to have left them the wrong number.)

Of course it remains to be seen how smart the Cruz campaign really is but as of this writing I, for one, am not impressed.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

My New Hampshire Predictions Were So Bad People Might Start Calling Me Larry Sabato

Trump surprised me. The reasons I thought he would underperform:

1. His New Hampshire rallies were inflated by people from Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont who wanted to see a TV star.

2. Many of Trump's fans are curiosity seekers who may or may not vote (as in Iowa).

3. Trump had a terrible ground game (as in Iowa.)

4. Being that I underestimated the commitment of Trump's supporters, I thought they would be even less likely to turn out the day after a snow storm if they did turn out in Iowa.

5. Bloom off rose/tired shtick/jumped the shark.

6. The Independents would be drawn to the Democratic race. This actually happened but it doesn't seem to make much difference.

Why I thought Cruise would overperform:

1. Commitment of principled voters.

2. Most of Rand Paul's supporters would go to Cruz.

3. After a 10 % showing in Iowa, a lot of Carson supporters would go elsewhere, most likely to Cruz.

4. Unlike the two previous Iowa winners, Santorum and Huckabee, Cruz is well-funded and brought in $3 million after winning Iowa.

5. Despite not spending a lot of money in New Hampshire, Cruz's campaign has a reputation for maximizing resources.

Why I thought Hillary would do better:

1. I underestimated Hillary's decline and fall. With or without an indictment, we have a Humpty Dumpty situation on our hands. Is there a king's horseman in the house?

Sunday, February 7, 2016

New Hampshire Even Money Propositions

I'm not taking action, so don't bother calling.

Trump over/under 29 %

Cruz over/under 20 %

Rubio over/under 20 %

The top three candidates cumulative vote over/under 71 %

Sanders over/under 56 %

Exactly One Candidate Suspends his/her campaign Tuesday before 11:59 PM EST 50/50

Candidates suspend campaign by Wednesday 11:59 PM EST, over/under (including Artis Gilmore) 3

I have been reading the pundits, the polls and the British betting sites all with a grain of salt and the weather reports with even more salt (they understated the last storm. 3-5 inches turned into a foot.) I stand by my earlier predictions:

1. Trump will not perform as well as the polls indicate.

2. Cruz will perform better than the polls indicate.

3. Sanders will not perform as well as polls indicate. Which means that Hillary will overperform but will probably lose. Given where she was a year ago it seems strange that Hillary will be celebrating a close second in a match race to the mandatory retirement poster child

I said before that Rubio is the wild card. The Gang of 8 has taken on a different meaning in the GOP Primaries. It's everyone against Marco and if he can survive the bleeding, look out front runners.

Congratulations Denver Broncos

I checked the score on Yahoo and seeing the Broncos were ahead, I watched most of the 4th quarter. Wade Phillips's defense is impressive. They carried Manning and his guys for the entire post season.

Congratulations Peyton. You ought to think about the next chapter. You were a lot of fun to watch. Maximum respect.