Friday, January 29, 2016

The Bad News For Fox: Second Lowest Debate Audience

But the good news is they trumped MSNBC and CNN's partial coverage of Donald Trump's thinly-disguised political rally.

Nielsen reports that 12.5 million watched the GOP debate. Not sure how many people watched CNN or Chris Matthews but I am certain they had audiences one could describe as select and distinguished.

Trump's ploy probably worked. He has created an image that is bigger than the group in much the same way Jody Foster declined to play in Brat Pack movies. He has antagonized Fox and that will give him cred in some circles. For all the cynicism his media event might generate, Trump did raise 6 million dollars for veterans' causes. His absence from the debate made second place Ted Cruz the flack catcher.

The big question now is, stop me if you heard this one, Trump's ground game.  We shall see.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Coming To A Country Near You? Is 'Britain First' A Harbinger For The Western World?

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Dave Ridley vs. Fox News and Carly Fiorina

The Free State movement is interesting but as with every movement it is defined by its loudest attention seekers. The members I have met are highly philosophical, interesting, driven people. The Free Staters who get attention are the performance artists who refuse to rise when the judge enters or otherwise thumb their noses at ritual or procedure. Imagine a football captain refusing to participate in the flip of the coin but is not above lecturing the referee on sound money policy and you have some idea of who the Free Staters are.

 Dave Ridley is sometimes insightful and entertaining. He is a journalist who would rather record the news media covering an event than record the BS event. In this vid, he antagonizes Fox News, John Roberts and Carly Fiorina. There seems to be typo in his text and what I think he menat to say is "if they had asked politely..." At any rate, the peasant jumps class with predictable reactions. This is all the richer for John Roberts, the walking case that there is not a dime's worth of difference between Fox and the other webs. Roberts came from CNN and he will always be best remembered for declaring his presence with candidate Obama, "a Reverend Wright-free zone." How professional!


Tuesday, January 26, 2016

If We Tried To Fail, Could We Do Worse Than Mike Murphy and Right To Rise USA?

I hold no delusions that I could coach a football team better than the worst coach in the NFL. I don't think I could run an airline either. I sometimes think I could run a network or movie studio better than a lot of executives but I am certain that there is more there than meets the eye. But I have no doubt that I--and really, just about everyone I have ever met--could not possibly do a worse job than the people who run Jeb Bush's campaign or his super PAC, Right to Rise USA.

For weeks we have been subjected to TV ads that bash Rubio, Kasich and Christie. I would throw my hands up and ask who is burning dollars like autumn leaves? Who would spend money to trash the third, fifth and on a good day, the seventh place contender while leaving the top two candidates pretty much untouched? The answer is Right to Rise USA.

Finally, a major player has looked at what is going on. Here is Stephen Hayes of "The Weekly Standard."

Bush's campaign and the Right to Rise super PAC supporting him have churned through more than half of the $100 million-plus they raised in an effort to boost his candidacy. It hasn't worked. When Bush first announced his interest in running, in late December of 2014, he was the prohibitive frontrunner at 18 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. When he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June, he was still the frontrunner, at nearly 11 percent in the RCP average. In the Fox News national poll released Friday, Bush was at 4 percent.

$50 Million and you take your guy from 11 % to 4 %? Seriously, if you disliked Jeb and wanted to tank his campaign, could you do more damage than Mike Murphy? Even if you tried really hard could you bring the front runner to 4%, well out of top tier contention? Truthfully, if his last name was not Bush, Rand Paul would still be sitting at the grownup table.

It gets worse. Hayes again:

Skeptical of national horserace polls? Fair enough. In Iowa, Bush sits in fifth place at 4.5 percent after more than $10 million in pro-Bush ad spending. In New Hampshire, where he's focused his efforts, and the campaign and its allies have spent some $25 million, he's in sixth place at 8.2 percent. His national favorability/unfavorability rating, per a HuffPost pollster aggregation, is 32/54 – the worst in the Republican field. (Donald Trump is 40/54).

Right to Rise has focused on stopping Rubio, Kasich and Christie. They seem to have some success at slowing down Rubio's momentum. But why these three? It is the overthinking school of political strategy. "Establishment Lane" is the latest polysci babble that is muttered by loser consultants.

In 2009, Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent $102 million of his own money to win reelection by a thin margin. At 585,466 votes, Bloomberg spent a staggering $174/vote. As absurd as those numbers are, Right to Rise and Jeb Bush will exceed them and it remains to be seen if he will receive as many votes nationwide. Bloomberg bought an election. Jeb Bush will be lucky to buy a fifth place finish.







Give any of us nine figures to play with and I think we could get Joey Buttafucco better numbers than Mike Murphy got for Jeb.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Trump Derangement Syndrome

This blogger supports Ted Cruz for president until further notice. With that stated, I would probably support a Trump presidential bid should he win the nomination. I have grown to respect and to like the man and even though I have staunch disagreements with the Donald he has provided a voice for the silent majority, a group that deserves to be treated more like citizens and less like cattle.

Maybe because Trump personalizes opposition he generates equal and opposite reactions. Or something like that. I dare say that if Bush or Christie had grabbed the lead and thumbed his nose at the field, "National Review Online" would not assemble a special "Against Jeb" edition.

How can I be so sure of that proposition? Because "National Review" did nothing of the sort when Romney, McCain, Bush II, Dole or Bush I lead the pack. With the usual disclaimers about Conservatism being more of a political coalition than an undeviating philosophy, we should ask ourselves "who is more truly conservative?"

Is Trump less conservative than the aforementioned Jeb or Christie? Is he less conservative than the GOP's last five presidential candidates? We know the answers. Surely there is something else that is generating all this animus.

Many of us realized decades ago that the primary political struggle was not Left v. Right nor Lib v. Con. It was Insider v. Outsider. Angelo Codevilla nailed it in his infamous "American Spectator" piece (I am not linking it because you should have already read it).

Codevilla is of the opinion that the Outsiders--which he defines as the Country Class--would eventually say "enough is enough." A leader would emerge who spoke for them. I for one thought it would be someone more cowboy than yankee and I did not expect a celebrity to lead the charge. I too, am a failed Jeremiah.

Incidentally, Codevilla takes the position that someone like Trunp, but not Trump himself, will lead the outsiders. In a Powerline tour de force Codevilla seems to make the case for the Donald but abruptly concludes that Trump is no statesman (to which most readers respond, "So what?")

Maybe Jonah Goldberg dislikes Trump because Donald said Jonah couldn't even buy a pair of pants. Trump is given to reflexive insult as well as insult overkill. That might explain some of the hostility but who does not believe that something deeper is at play? Perhaps the Ericksons and Levins are not as relevant as they thought they were and are not the kingmakers they would like to be. Getting gruffly reminded of one's true status, is that not the origin of Trump Derangement Syndrome?