My New Hampshire Predictions Were So Bad People Might Start Calling Me Larry Sabato

Trump surprised me. The reasons I thought he would underperform:

1. His New Hampshire rallies were inflated by people from Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont who wanted to see a TV star.

2. Many of Trump's fans are curiosity seekers who may or may not vote (as in Iowa).

3. Trump had a terrible ground game (as in Iowa.)

4. Being that I underestimated the commitment of Trump's supporters, I thought they would be even less likely to turn out the day after a snow storm if they did turn out in Iowa.

5. Bloom off rose/tired shtick/jumped the shark.

6. The Independents would be drawn to the Democratic race. This actually happened but it doesn't seem to make much difference.


Why I thought Cruise would overperform:

1. Commitment of principled voters.

2. Most of Rand Paul's supporters would go to Cruz.

3. After a 10 % showing in Iowa, a lot of Carson supporters would go elsewhere, most likely to Cruz.

4. Unlike the two previous Iowa winners, Santorum and Huckabee, Cruz is well-funded and brought in $3 million after winning Iowa.

5. Despite not spending a lot of money in New Hampshire, Cruz's campaign has a reputation for maximizing resources.

Why I thought Hillary would do better:

1. I underestimated Hillary's decline and fall. With or without an indictment, we have a Humpty Dumpty situation on our hands. Is there a king's horseman in the house?