Tuesday, January 26, 2016

If We Tried To Fail, Could We Do Worse Than Mike Murphy and Right To Rise USA?

I hold no delusions that I could coach a football team better than the worst coach in the NFL. I don't think I could run an airline either. I sometimes think I could run a network or movie studio better than a lot of executives but I am certain that there is more there than meets the eye. But I have no doubt that I--and really, just about everyone I have ever met--could not possibly do a worse job than the people who run Jeb Bush's campaign or his super PAC, Right to Rise USA.

For weeks we have been subjected to TV ads that bash Rubio, Kasich and Christie. I would throw my hands up and ask who is burning dollars like autumn leaves? Who would spend money to trash the third, fifth and on a good day, the seventh place contender while leaving the top two candidates pretty much untouched? The answer is Right to Rise USA.

Finally, a major player has looked at what is going on. Here is Stephen Hayes of "The Weekly Standard."

Bush's campaign and the Right to Rise super PAC supporting him have churned through more than half of the $100 million-plus they raised in an effort to boost his candidacy. It hasn't worked. When Bush first announced his interest in running, in late December of 2014, he was the prohibitive frontrunner at 18 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. When he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June, he was still the frontrunner, at nearly 11 percent in the RCP average. In the Fox News national poll released Friday, Bush was at 4 percent.

$50 Million and you take your guy from 11 % to 4 %? Seriously, if you disliked Jeb and wanted to tank his campaign, could you do more damage than Mike Murphy? Even if you tried really hard could you bring the front runner to 4%, well out of top tier contention? Truthfully, if his last name was not Bush, Rand Paul would still be sitting at the grownup table.

It gets worse. Hayes again:

Skeptical of national horserace polls? Fair enough. In Iowa, Bush sits in fifth place at 4.5 percent after more than $10 million in pro-Bush ad spending. In New Hampshire, where he's focused his efforts, and the campaign and its allies have spent some $25 million, he's in sixth place at 8.2 percent. His national favorability/unfavorability rating, per a HuffPost pollster aggregation, is 32/54 – the worst in the Republican field. (Donald Trump is 40/54).

Right to Rise has focused on stopping Rubio, Kasich and Christie. They seem to have some success at slowing down Rubio's momentum. But why these three? It is the overthinking school of political strategy. "Establishment Lane" is the latest polysci babble that is muttered by loser consultants.

In 2009, Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent $102 million of his own money to win reelection by a thin margin. At 585,466 votes, Bloomberg spent a staggering $174/vote. As absurd as those numbers are, Right to Rise and Jeb Bush will exceed them and it remains to be seen if he will receive as many votes nationwide. Bloomberg bought an election. Jeb Bush will be lucky to buy a fifth place finish.

PROPPING UP KASICH'S NAME RECOGNITION

MAKING SURE RUBIO DOESN"T GET THE BRONZE MEDAL

MORE MARCO BASHING

GO JEB GO

AT LEAST THEY ATTACK THE FRONT RUNNERS

THEY EVEN TARGET THE LEADER...WITH NO RESULTS


Give any of us nine figures to play with and I think we could get Joey Buttafucco better numbers than Mike Murphy got for Jeb.



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