Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The Big Losers: Pollsters

Political polling isn't easy, I will concede that. Meteorology can also be challenging. A weatherman might overstate a blizzard but if he overlooks a Cat 5 hurricane, he should consider a career change.

Pat Roberts was in a statistical dead heat with Greg Orman. Roberts won by eleven points.

Tillis was losing to Hagan. He won by two points.

Perdue was not going to reach 50%. He got 53%.

McConnell was supposed to be in a tussle. He won by sixteen points.

Cuomo was supposed to win by a landslide. He got 54%.

Did they even poll Gillespie-Warner? What about the Maryland governor's race? I don't recall anyone saying Hogan by nine.

The pollsters called New Hampshire races correctly even though the governor's race was closer than predicted. They got the Massachusetts governor's race on target. They called Michigan, Ohio, California, New Mexico, South Carolina and Hawaii. Guess they can still shoot fish in a barrel some of the time.

The Rush Limbaughs will tell us the polls understated GOP leads to encourage Democrats. He might be right. Of course, not every pollster is driven by ideology. Professional reputations are on the line. If a balance of power has shifted, it shifted most dramatically in the pollster arena.

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