NOAA versus The Farmers' Almanac-The unsettling uncertainty of settled science

Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. Okay, long rang weather forecasting is at best a tricky business even when approached objectively but when the forecasters rely on "settled science" it's time to switch channels.



Jason Samenow of the Washington Post who must fancy himself as the gatekeeper of the settled science society was quick to pounce upon what he perceived as heresy with a post he may want to forget, The Farmers’ Almanac outrageous forecast: a frigid, snowy winter and stormy Super Bowl. OMG! What will those flat earthers think of next? I'll post a few quotes from Mr Samenow for you to read while you watch him bleed out.

If you believe it, residents of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may want to start stocking up on warm weather gear, snow shovels, and salt right now! The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a “bitterly cold” winter for much of the region.

He is just getting warmed up.

The decision to make MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands home for the Super Bowl was a controversial one. Critics say cold could make for an uncomfortable fan experience and a storm could be a nightmare for travelers. In early February, cold snaps and snowstorms are common in the region.
Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco called the cold weather Super Bowl concept “stupid” .
Flacco may be considered a genius if the Farmers’ Almanac forecast is right.
“…fans, players, and travelers alike may want to leave a few days early and pack extra warm, waterproof weather gear,” the Almanac’s press release advises.
(It’s a nice coincidence the Super Bowl occurs on Groundhog Day. The rodent and Farmers’ Almanac have about the same forecasting credibility…)

I wouldn't go so far as to call Joe Flacco a genius but in hindsight he looks smarter than NOAA and Samenow.

Let me state emphatically that no one – with any degree of accuracy – can predict the specific days when cold snaps or storms will occur months in advance.

True. They missed it by 6 hours! The New York Daily News headline reads;

Winter storm hits New York City area just 6 hours after Super Bowl ends — and much more snow on the way.

Close enough for government work?