Saturday, January 25, 2014

Did Reince give Rand a leg up?

Did Reince Priebus and the RNC just hand the 2016 nomination to Rand Paul? If they didn't, they did at least make him a heavy favorite. First Florida which would favor Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio will not be an early state. The month of February will be reserved for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Ron Paul was well organized in Iowa and that organization will certainly follow the younger Paul. Rand has assiduously courted Iowa and it being a caucus state gives the candidate with the strongest organization a huge advantage.
New Hampshire? Here again Paul has some organizational advantages and his libertarian message will find a receptive electorate. Ron Paul ran second here to the Romney money machine. I would make him a strong favorite. South Carolina may be Paul's biggest challenge in February. His father finished fourth in a four horse field in 2012. He may have a hard time selling his message here.
Nevada? This is Paul territory. Ron Paul won 8 delegates and Romney won 22 and they were the only candidates to win delegates. To his credit Ron Paul ran against all odds. He ran to sell a message and one doubts if he ever dreamed of getting to the White House. Rand Paul will probably run a much better funded campaign with the ardent support of some elected GOP and Tea Party office holders. An endorsement from fellow Senator Chuck Grassley, Governor Nikki Haley, or Congressman Trey Gowdy is something the senior Paul would never get but those endorsements and many others may be Rand's for the asking by February of 2016.

1 comment:

BOSurvivor said...

If Cruz runs, he and Paul will split the Tea Party vote in the first four states, probably opening the door for Jeb Bush. Boehner more or less endorsed B3 on Leno which is an indicator that he is running.