Sunday, October 27, 2013

2014 Senate Elections

Usual disclaimer. I am not a Republican but I usually vote that way because the GOP has established itself as the party of lesser evil. They send us slowly over the real fiscal cliff as they advocate for a slower death spiral and truth is, they are not as evil as the Democrats vintage 2008-2013. Voter fraud is overwhelmingly a Democratic pursuit. So too is using the DOJ or the IRS to shake down donors and to punish the non-compliant.

If Reince Priebus fails to take the Senate in 2014, he needs to be fired. No more General McClellans. I do not hold to the defeatist viewpoint that the Udalls and Shaheens are untouchable. I don't buy it.

The Democrats are vulnerable in seven states and at least seven more are shaky. There are a couple more that are long shots but are by no means done deals.

First, the vulnerable.

Alaska.   Mark Begich.

Arkansas. Marl Pryor.

Louisiana. Mary Landrieu.

Montana.  Max Baucus's vacating seat.

North Carolina.  Kay Hagan.

South Dakota. Tim Johnson's vacating seat.

West Virginia.  Jay Rockefeller's vacating seat.

If Priebus loses any of these, chop chop.

The shaky (if not vulnerable) seats.

New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico

Comments on the seven shaky if not vulnerable states.

Colorado. A state that recalls gun grabbers and dislikes Obamacare could be a happy hunting ground in an off-year election.

Iowa: It would be nice if Steve King stepped up but no matter who runs, this seat is available for the taking.

Michigan: Carl Levin is retiring. Michigan is a purple state that is trending red. They have a GOP governor and the bankruptcy of Detroit after decades of Dem mismanagement should send a chill through this frigid land. Low hanging fruit.

Minnesota: Franken should probably be downgraded to vulnerable. He had to steal the election in 2008 against a weak candidate in a blue state that was going goo goo for their new deity, Barack Obama. If the GOP runs a good candidate who sticks to the issues, Franken will be going back to Hollywood.

New Hampshire.  New Hampshire has gone purple due to widespread voter fraud. Fraudsters from Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts and elsewhere pour in on election day where they take advantage of same day registration (after voting in their home states earlier in the day.) As well, students who cast absentee ballots in their home state ate recruited to vote in New Hampshire. I used to like Jeanne Shaheen but the NH Dems are as corrupt as the Chicago machine.
This is an uphill battle but it is well worth waging.

New Jersey. I am not a big Christie fan but I think he could beat Booker. This assumes that Christie wins his gubernatorial election and then decides help his party. More likely, he will want to be Corey's special buddy.

New Mexico. Run Gary Johnson, the two-time governor. He could win but the GOP establishment would rather lose to Dems than embrace a Libertarian.

Outside chances:


Delaware. If the GOP runs O'Donnell, Chris Coons will be re-elected. Anyone else has a fighting chance.

Hawaii. If Charles Djou runs, this seat is in play.

Massachusetts. Markey is vulnerable. The problem is the GOP has no bench in this state. Their strongest candidate, Charlie Baker, will be running for governor. Gabriel Gomez was a joke of a candidate in the special election--so much so that Boston talk radio middleweight Michael Graham refused to mention him by name--but he was able to keep it close.

Oregon. Jeff Merkley is not a particularly strong candidate. But like Delaware, Hawaii and Massachusetts, the GOP has no bench.

This is do or die for Priebus. He blew 2012 but now he is given another chance. Let's hope he makes the most of it.


Hoosierman said...

As the country learns just how bad Obamacare is I would figure at least a ten seat pick up.

Hoosierman said...

Also I like Justin Amash for Senator from Michigan.