Things could still tip the other way. The Mighty, Mighty Acorns could still work some last second magic and save the House for their benefactors. But it's unlikely. Heading into Tuesday, it looks like a tsunami will indeed sweep across this great land, as scheduled.
I wanted to guard against overconfidence and October surprises, so I did not sponsor a Biggest Goliath contest. But here goes. Who will be the biggest Goliath to fall on Tuesday?
No particular criteria to define the biggest Goliath. Sometimes parlor games are funnest before the Jello hardens. We should probably divide the game into House and Senate. And Harry Reid, by virtue (for lack of a better term) of reining as the Senate Majority Leader, will probably win the Biggest Goliath Award in the Senate. Then again, Boxer or Murray could bite the dust. But Fiorina is no David with a sling. So Harry might have a lock on this one.
In the House, the competition is intense. What if Barney, Dennis and James Oberstar all bit the dust on the same evening? Who is James Oberstar and how has he earned his Big Guy credentials? He has held his seat since 1974 and has been in politics for 48 years. He does not possess the arrogance of Frank or Kucinich, that seems a safe assertion. He is a pro-life Democrat, a man of the people who brings a lot of extrinsic knowledge to his job. A decent guy.
A decent guy but a tax and spend and control guy too. A good-hearted Goliath perhaps, but a Goliath nonetheless. And he is facing a formidable David in the person of Chip Cravaack.
http://chipcravaack.com/
Maybe the Three Giants will emerge unscathed. Then again, one or two or three of them might get a rock upside the head. If all three of them bite the dust, then the Biggest Goliath has to go to Barney. The other two seem like they are on borrowed time in blue collar districts. Make no doubt about it. The Biggest Goliath could be a Battle Royale.
2 comments:
The biggest fish would be John Dingell of Michigan's 15th CD. He inherited the seat from his father in 1955. Charlie Cook still has him rated "solid" but real clear politics has him as "lean democrat". A sentimental favorite, Rep.Eddie Bernice Johnson who was elected in 1992, has worked hard to provide scholarships to most of her needy relatives from the Black Congressional Caucus educational fund. Last week she was surprised when her opponent actually ran a tv ad. With no opposition since 1992 she is out of shape and has very little campaign funds.
Issac Newton (Ike) Skelton IV of Missouri's 4th CD, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee is even money (toss up) in both the Cook and Real Clear Politics poll and in a wave election incumbents don't usually get the jump ball. He gets my vote.
A sure looser is John Spratt from South Carolina 5 and chairman of the budget committee.
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